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Wednesday, April 6, 2011

India: Q3FY11 Earnings Final Cut-Growth Is Slowing (Morgan Stanley)

The slowdown in earnings remains a matter of concern for market participants.


-Q3FY11 Results show 25 per cent of the companies reporting a yoy decline in earnings.

-Earnings growth was the slowest in 5 quarters.

-Excluding Ongc and Tata Motors Sensex earnings are up a mere 10.5 per cent yoy.

-Telecoms and Utilities were the biggest laggards with a substantial drop in YOY earnings.

-Financials produced the biggest positive surprises while consumer staples and healthcare produced the most negative surprises.

-FY11 earnings growth revisions were negative for 6 out of 10 sectors over the past month with Materials and Helathcare seeing the highest negative earnings revisions.

-The recent events in the country coupled with higher inflation and global factors is putting pressure on growth and creating the risk of downward earnings revisions. For now we think that the downgrades will be moderate. However, lead indicators point to slower broad market earnings growth in the coming quarters.
 
Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 

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