There has been a spate of recent articles and comments stating or implying that dividend growth stocks are in a bubble. David Jackson, the founder and CEO of Seeking Alpha, stated the following in a recent comment.
I haven't found any other asset class [beside dividend growth stocks] where there are similar causes or indicators of potential overvaluation risk, specifically:
1. macro factors (interest rates, demographics, and tax rates),
2. a significant preponderance of positive articles on SA, with relatively few "challenging" articles,
3. high and rising interest from novice investors. (Please note: I'm *not* saying that all dividend investors are novices; there are many deeply experienced and sophisticated dividend investors.) The last times we saw massive rises in novice investor interest ended badly: the housing bubble (when everyone seemed to be dealing in real estate) and the tech bubble (when barbers were recommending tech stocks). I'm not saying we've reached that point with dividend stocks, but if we do, it will be too late.
I do not wish to quote David out of context nor imply that he is stating that dividend growth stocks are in a bubble. I believe that his concern is that the majority of articles on dividend growth investing do not question or discuss valuation enough, and that therefore there is a risk that inexperienced investors, turning to dividend growth stocks in their search for yield, may be walking into an over-valuation trap. Please go to this article and the comment stream beneath it to see the full context for the particular comment that I quoted above.
Personally, I am neutral on the question of dividend growth stocks being in a bubble or not, as I evaluate stocks one at a time and do not pay much attention to the valuation of the asset class as a whole. Nevertheless, for those who are interested in the valuation of dividend growth stocks as a class, I thought that I would tackle the basic question about the valuation of the most commonly held dividend growth stocks: Are they in a bubble?
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